Yes, this is indeed the tradeoff, and in my opinion, knowing that you’ll be able to smoothly participate across a long time horizon is way more important than whether or not you get a given amount of stacks in a given period.
Let’s refer to 1, 2 and 3 as:
Guaranteed Payouts
Fixed Cycles
Fixed Thresholds
Prioritizing Fixed Cycles and Fixed Thresholds over Guaranteed Payouts to me is a much better UX.
Why?
Because it still probabilistically guarantees the same payout over a larger # of cycles, and it avoids all of the confusion, UX issues, and refunding required to service a Floating Threshold.
I think we can do even better though.
If we set the Fixed Threshold somewhat high, say 200,000 STX, then we can guarantee that every stacker gets a slot for every cycle as long as the total amount stacked is under 745M STX.
Further, we should research whether it is possible to include more than one slot per Bitcoin block. I believe this is possible, and I’ve postulated a solution to this earlier:
If we can have mining service more than one slot per Bitcoin block, then we could have every Stacking address get paid out more than once per cycle per slot.
Thus, you’d have a floating # of payouts per cycle, that could shift between let’s say 4 and 5.
On average, across enough cycles, everyone would get the same amount paid out, and everyone would get paid each cycle.